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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:54) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model