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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 51

Miami Dolphins 7 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-D.Williams up the middle to MIA 48 for -1 yards (99-K.Short; 59-L.Kuechly).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model