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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 14 – Carolina Panthers 38

What Actually Happened

(:12) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to CAR 17, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.24 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model