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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 18

Buffalo Bills 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 4-S.Hauschka 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model