Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 3 – New Orleans Saints 30

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to NO 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn to NO 22 for 10 yards (44-D.Lacey). Return credited to NO 12 (spot of foul). PENALTY on NO-21-D.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at NO 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model