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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 37 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model