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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 3 – New Orleans Saints 40

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Shotgun) 42-P.DiMarco right tackle to BUF 44 for no gain (57-A.Okafor; 25-R.Bush).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 56, worth -2.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model