Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

(5:03) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to NO 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 45 for 9 yards (44-D.Lacey).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.17 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model