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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 16

New York Giants 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 2-A.Rosas 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model