Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 78

New York Giants 13 – San Francisco 49ers 24

(13:01) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to SF 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 17-V.Bolden to SF 38 for 7 yards (58-C.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.41 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model