Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 73

New York Giants 13 – San Francisco 49ers 31

(8:01) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to SF 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.43 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model