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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 31 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NYG 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 84-E.Eagan to NYG 10 for no gain (26-G.Mabin).

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.03 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP