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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 82

New York Giants 13 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to NYG 32 for 14 yards (56-R.Foster). Caught at NY 23. 9-YAC

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.73 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model