Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 63

New York Giants 13 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-R.Lewis to NYG 46 for 9 yards (36-D.Johnson). Penalty on SF-36-D.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Caught at NY 46. 0-YAC

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

What Happened

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.54 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model