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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 47

New York Giants 13 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(1:29) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 34-S.Vereen pushed ob at SF 43 for 4 yards (50-B.Coyle). Caught at SF 47. 4-YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.02 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model