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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 44-K.Juszczyk right guard to NYG 36 for no gain (47-K.Sheppard).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.84 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model