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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 24

New York Giants 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model