Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

(4:25) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to IND 25, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-C.Rogers to IND 21 for -4 yards (28-S.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model