4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to PIT 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.95 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP