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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to PIT 1, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP