Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to IND 16, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-C.Rogers to IND 28 for 12 yards (54-L.Fort; 56-A.Chickillo). PENALTY on IND-32-T.Green, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at IND 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model