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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to IND 11, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.65 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP