4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-39-J.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.78 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model