Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 2-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to PIT 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on PIT-21-J.Haden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model