Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 1 at the 1
Seattle Seahawks 10 – Atlanta Falcons 21
What Actually Happened
(5:25) 3-R.Wilson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.41 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.38 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 1, worth -0.01 EP
KICK
+1.41 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT
-0.59 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
