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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Ryan pass short middle to 82-L.Willson to ATL 21 for -4 yards (97-G.Jarrett).

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.73 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP