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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 1

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +4.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP