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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CIN 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 4 yards (34-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model