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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to CIN 49, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-82-C.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.60 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 43, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model