4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:49) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 23 for -5 yards (50-J.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model