4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 96

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to CIN 47, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-E.Sanders to CIN 44 for 3 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.14 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 96, worth -5.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 53, worth -3.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model