4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 27

Denver Broncos 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model