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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.48 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP