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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 74

Denver Broncos 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 10-E.Sanders (27-D.Kirkpatrick).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.74 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -1.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model