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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 22
Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 6
What Actually Happened
(4:08) 22-C.Anderson right tackle to CIN 19 for 3 yards (59-N.Vigil).
The Three Options
GO
+2.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.66 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
KICK
+1.86 EP
- 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
