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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to JAX 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 19 for 12 yards (80-R.Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model