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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to CLE 6, Center-49-C.Holba. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 16 for 10 yards (94-D.Smoot; 25-P.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.00 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.95 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model