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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 5-B.Bortles up the middle to CLE 47 for 2 yards (65-L.Ogunjobi).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model