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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:34) 4-J.Lambo 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.48 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model