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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to CLE 27, Center-49-C.Holba. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 26 for -1 yards (25-P.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP