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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to JAX 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model