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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to CLE 41, Center-49-C.Holba. 22-J.Peppers MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 41, RECOVERED by JAX-26-J.Wilson at CLE 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model