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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(14:29) 3-B.Nortman punts 37 yards to CLE 14, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.35 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -2.01 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model