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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to JAX 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.27 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP