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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short left to 80-R.Louis.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.62 EP