Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

(3:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to CLE 27, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model