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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Giants 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to KC 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP