4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 74

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NYG 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 83-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 28. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 28 for no gain (31-A.Hunt, 53-R.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.97 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP