Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 66

New York Giants 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to KC 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 49 for 20 yards (29-N.Berhe). Penalty on KC-51-F.Zombo, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on KC-48-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 33. Officially, a return for 4 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.56 EP
52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model