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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 33

New York Giants 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(1:41) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-E.Engram (56-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.41 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model